---
title: Anthropic is winning the people who build with AI. OpenAI still has everyone else
description: A public-data investigation of how perception of OpenAI and Anthropic shifted from 2023 to October 2026, what drove it, and who leads on attention, use, money and capability, population by population.
author: Daniel Vecera
date: '2026-10-02'
version: 0.1.0
slug: openai-vs-anthropic
tags:
- ai
- openai
- anthropic
- market-perception
- public-data
theme: auto
---

## The verdict

Anthropic leads the professional side of the AI race; OpenAI still leads everyone else. By October 2026, Anthropic is ahead with the people who build with AI and the companies that buy it. It holds 65% of Hacker News comments that mention either company over the last twelve months, and 43.8% of US businesses on Ramp pay it against 39.8% for OpenAI ([C196](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-sept-2026)). It booked $11.5bn of revenue in the second quarter against OpenAI's $6.7bn ([C110](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/anthropic-revenue-jumps-to-over-11point5-billion-in-q2-report.html), [C015](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-second-quarter-sales-show-tepid-growth-compared-with-anthropic-5cb42998)), and its last private valuation was higher too: $965bn against $852bn ([C128](https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h), [C034](https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/)).

OpenAI's lead with consumers is an order of magnitude. ChatGPT has 40× as many US App Store ratings as Claude and a billion monthly app users to Claude's 56 million ([C186](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/chatgpt-app-hits-1-billion-monthly-active-users-in-record-time-data-shows-ce7f5dded08bf222)). In May, 43% of American adults had used it in the past week; 9% had used Claude ([S005](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf)). On capability the two are level: their best models sit inside each other's confidence intervals on Epoch AI's composite index (167.3 for Claude Opus 5.5, 166.5 for GPT-6 Astra).

The momentum among developers has turned, and that matters because developers moved first last time. Their net stance toward Anthropic fell from +23 points in early 2025 to −16 in the third quarter of 2026, level with OpenAI's −14. People who say they switched now name OpenAI as the destination 159 times against 37 for Anthropic. Codex has overtaken Claude Code in conversation and search.

```big
value: 11.5
label: Anthropic Q2 2026 revenue, $bn (OpenAI 6.7)
format: number
trend: up
```

```callout
kind: hold
title: How to read this report
body: |
  "Public perception" here is never one number. Every measure names its population (Hacker News commenters, Google searchers, US adults in probability samples, US businesses on Ramp, app reviewers) and its window. Scraped samples describe the people in them, not the public. Revenue and valuation figures come mostly from documents seen by journalists, because neither company has a public, audited filing yet. Each claim links to a dated source; the full ledger and the code that rebuilds every chart ship with the report.
```

## One race, many publics

Ask what share of the two-company total goes to Anthropic, and the answer runs from 2.4% to 71%. It depends on whom you ask.

```chart
type: bar
title: Anthropic's share of the race runs from 2.4% to 71%, depending on who is asked
subtitle: Anthropic's share of OpenAI + Anthropic on the latest comparable measure for eight populations, %
data:
  inline:
  - {measure: Ratings, anthropic_share_pct: 2.4}
  - {measure: Search, anthropic_share_pct: 8.7}
  - {measure: Weekly, anthropic_share_pct: 17.3}
  - {measure: PyPI, anthropic_share_pct: 33.7}
  - {measure: npm, anthropic_share_pct: 49.8}
  - {measure: Firms, anthropic_share_pct: 52.4}
  - {measure: HN, anthropic_share_pct: 64.9}
  - {measure: Agents, anthropic_share_pct: 70.9}
encoding: {x: measure, y: anthropic_share_pct}
axes:
  x: {label: ''}
  y: {label: 'Anthropic share, %'}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [C196](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-sept-2026), [D-GT](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore), [D-HN](https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/), [D-ITUNES](https://itunes.apple.com/lookup), [D-NPM](https://api.npmjs.org/downloads/), [D-PYPI](https://clickpy.clickhouse.com/), [S005](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf), [S065](https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/08/ai-coding-agent-adoption-2026/). Population: Eight of the sixteen measures in the table below, from US iPhone owners to professional developers. Window: Latest available period per measure (2025 to 2026-10-02). Data: `data/charts/share-by-population.csv`. Share = Anthropic / (Anthropic + OpenAI). Measures use different units; compare shares, not levels.*

The ordering is not random. The closer a population sits to building with AI, the larger Anthropic's share. Consumer measures (app ratings, app users, web visits, weekly use) put Claude between 2% and 17% of the pair. Searchers and readers looking for the products give Claude 8.7% of Google interest and 6.6% of Wikipedia views. Developers range from about a third (Python SDK installs, the 2025 Stack Overflow survey) to about two-thirds and more (conversation, coding agents at work). Businesses and revenue sit above 50%.

The gap is in the products, not the companies. Over the same twelve months, Anthropic's own Wikipedia article drew 56% of English views of the two company pages. Dario Amodei's page drew 45% of the views of the two chief executives. Google searches for the companies give Anthropic 23%. The public follows Anthropic the company through the Pentagon fight, the funding rounds and the IPO, while it searches for and uses ChatGPT the product.

```chart
type: bar
title: The public reads about Anthropic but uses ChatGPT
subtitle: Anthropic's share of attention to each pair (Claude vs ChatGPT; Anthropic vs OpenAI; Amodei vs Altman), %
data:
  inline:
  - {medium: Google searches, level: Products, anthropic_share_pct: 8.7}
  - {medium: Google searches, level: Companies, anthropic_share_pct: 23.3}
  - {medium: Wikipedia views, level: Products, anthropic_share_pct: 6.6}
  - {medium: Wikipedia views, level: Companies, anthropic_share_pct: 55.8}
  - {medium: Wikipedia views, level: Chief executives, anthropic_share_pct: 45.4}
encoding: {x: medium, y: anthropic_share_pct, color: level}
axes:
  x: {label: ''}
  y: {label: 'Anthropic share, %'}
annotations:
- kind: line
  at: {y: 50}
  text: ''
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-GT](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore), [D-WIKI](https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/). Population: Google searchers worldwide; English Wikipedia readers. Window: 2025-10 to 2026-09. Data: `data/charts/company-vs-product.csv`. Searches: knowledge-graph topics compared in pairs. Wikipedia: English articles, redirects included. Oct 2025 to Sep 2026.*

So surveys of "brand perception" and social listening keep contradicting each other: they measure different publics. It also means Anthropic's consumer problem is mostly reach, not reputation. Awareness of Claude doubled from 21% to 42% of US adults between February and May 2026, but weekly use only rose from 4% to 9% ([S006](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf), [S007](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf), [S004](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf), [S005](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf)).

```table
data:
  inline:
  - population: Consumers
    measure: cumulative App Store ratings, US, 2026-10-02
    anthropic_share: 2.4
    source: D-ITUNES
  - population: Consumers
    measure: mobile monthly active users, Q2 2026 (Sensor Tower)
    anthropic_share: 5.3
    source: C186
  - population: Readers
    measure: English Wikipedia views, Claude vs ChatGPT articles, 2025-10..2026-09
    anthropic_share: 6.6
    source: D-WIKI
  - population: Searchers
    measure: Google topic interest, Claude vs ChatGPT, 2025-10..2026-09
    anthropic_share: 8.7
    source: D-GT
  - population: Consumers
    measure: share of gen-AI web visits, Aug 2026 (Similarweb)
    anthropic_share: 14.4
    source: C195
  - population: US adults
    measure: used in past week, May 2026 (SSRS probability panel)
    anthropic_share: 17.3
    source: S005
  - population: Searchers
    measure: Google topic interest, Anthropic vs OpenAI, 2025-10..2026-09
    anthropic_share: 23.3
    source: D-GT
  - population: Developers
    measure: Python SDK median daily downloads, Sep 2026
    anthropic_share: 33.7
    source: D-PYPI
  - population: Developers
    measure: used for development, 2025 (Stack Overflow survey)
    anthropic_share: 34.5
    source: S054
  - population: Developers
    measure: JavaScript SDK median daily downloads, Sep 2026
    anthropic_share: 49.8
    source: D-NPM
  - population: Businesses
    measure: US businesses paying each vendor, Aug 2026 (Ramp)
    anthropic_share: 52.4
    source: C196
  - population: Readers
    measure: English Wikipedia views, Anthropic vs OpenAI articles, 2025-10..2026-09
    anthropic_share: 55.8
    source: D-WIKI
  - population: Enterprises
    measure: enterprise LLM API spend, end-2025 (Menlo, an Anthropic investor)
    anthropic_share: 59.7
    source: C174
  - population: Investors
    measure: recognised revenue, Q2 2026 (reported documents)
    anthropic_share: 63.2
    source: C110
  - population: Developers
    measure: Hacker News comments, 2025-10..2026-09
    anthropic_share: 64.9
    source: D-HN
  - population: Developers
    measure: coding agent used at work, mid-2026 (JetBrains survey)
    anthropic_share: 70.9
    source: S065
columns:
- key: population
  label: Population
- key: measure
  label: Measure
- key: anthropic_share
  label: Anthropic share, %
  align: right
- key: source
  label: Source
max_rows: 200
```

## The shift travelled from builders to buyers to bankers

```chart
type: line
title: Developer talk flipped to Anthropic in mid-2025; the wider public barely moved
subtitle: Anthropic's share of OpenAI + Anthropic, by month and population
data:
  inline:
  - {month: 2023-01, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 1.0}
  - {month: 2023-01, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-01, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 0.5}
  - {month: 2023-02, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 0.6}
  - {month: 2023-02, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-02, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 0.1}
  - {month: 2023-03, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 0.7}
  - {month: 2023-03, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-03, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 0.5}
  - {month: 2023-04, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 2.1}
  - {month: 2023-04, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-04, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 7.3}
  - {month: 2023-05, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 3.1}
  - {month: 2023-05, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-05, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 9.1}
  - {month: 2023-06, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-06, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 2.5}
  - {month: 2023-06, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-06, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 12.5}
  - {month: 2023-07, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-07, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 6.2}
  - {month: 2023-07, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-07, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 13.6}
  - {month: 2023-08, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-08, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 3.7}
  - {month: 2023-08, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-08, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 14.9}
  - {month: 2023-09, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-09, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 5.7}
  - {month: 2023-09, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-09, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 15.1}
  - {month: 2023-10, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-10, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 7.4}
  - {month: 2023-10, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-10, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 16.7}
  - {month: 2023-11, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-11, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 5.2}
  - {month: 2023-11, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-11, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 17.7}
  - {month: 2023-12, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-12, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 4.6}
  - {month: 2023-12, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2023-12, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 18.4}
  - {month: 2024-01, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2024-01, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 2.8}
  - {month: 2024-01, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.1}
  - {month: 2024-01, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 18.0}
  - {month: 2024-02, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2024-02, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 4.4}
  - {month: 2024-02, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 0.4}
  - {month: 2024-02, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 17.1}
  - {month: 2024-03, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2024-03, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 20.1}
  - {month: 2024-03, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.8}
  - {month: 2024-03, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 19.3}
  - {month: 2024-04, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2024-04, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 21.4}
  - {month: 2024-04, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.5}
  - {month: 2024-04, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 23.3}
  - {month: 2024-05, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {month: 2024-05, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 8.1}
  - {month: 2024-05, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.8}
  - {month: 2024-05, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 23.6}
  - {month: 2024-06, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 1.4}
  - {month: 2024-06, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 16.0}
  - {month: 2024-06, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.2}
  - {month: 2024-06, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 20.4}
  - {month: 2024-07, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 1.9}
  - {month: 2024-07, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 21.2}
  - {month: 2024-07, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 6.0}
  - {month: 2024-07, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 20.2}
  - {month: 2024-08, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 1.7}
  - {month: 2024-08, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 28.4}
  - {month: 2024-08, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 5.1}
  - {month: 2024-08, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 19.3}
  - {month: 2024-09, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.4}
  - {month: 2024-09, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 20.4}
  - {month: 2024-09, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 3.2}
  - {month: 2024-09, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 20.2}
  - {month: 2024-10, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.1}
  - {month: 2024-10, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 29.3}
  - {month: 2024-10, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 3.0}
  - {month: 2024-10, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 20.6}
  - {month: 2024-11, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 1.9}
  - {month: 2024-11, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 29.4}
  - {month: 2024-11, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 3.1}
  - {month: 2024-11, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 20.4}
  - {month: 2024-12, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.2}
  - {month: 2024-12, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 25.5}
  - {month: 2024-12, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 3.5}
  - {month: 2024-12, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 21.2}
  - {month: 2025-01, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.0}
  - {month: 2025-01, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 22.0}
  - {month: 2025-01, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.9}
  - {month: 2025-01, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 22.2}
  - {month: 2025-02, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 1.7}
  - {month: 2025-02, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 31.4}
  - {month: 2025-02, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.6}
  - {month: 2025-02, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 23.4}
  - {month: 2025-03, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 1.5}
  - {month: 2025-03, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 38.7}
  - {month: 2025-03, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.5}
  - {month: 2025-03, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 23.3}
  - {month: 2025-04, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 1.4}
  - {month: 2025-04, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 32.0}
  - {month: 2025-04, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 1.2}
  - {month: 2025-04, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 23.9}
  - {month: 2025-05, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 1.9}
  - {month: 2025-05, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 38.4}
  - {month: 2025-05, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.4}
  - {month: 2025-05, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 25.1}
  - {month: 2025-06, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.5}
  - {month: 2025-06, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 43.9}
  - {month: 2025-06, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 1.2}
  - {month: 2025-06, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 25.9}
  - {month: 2025-07, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.5}
  - {month: 2025-07, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 50.7}
  - {month: 2025-07, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.0}
  - {month: 2025-07, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 26.2}
  - {month: 2025-08, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.5}
  - {month: 2025-08, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 50.9}
  - {month: 2025-08, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 1.8}
  - {month: 2025-08, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 25.8}
  - {month: 2025-09, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.1}
  - {month: 2025-09, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 48.7}
  - {month: 2025-09, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 1.5}
  - {month: 2025-09, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 25.2}
  - {month: 2025-10, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.0}
  - {month: 2025-10, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 41.3}
  - {month: 2025-10, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 1.8}
  - {month: 2025-10, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 26.0}
  - {month: 2025-11, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.1}
  - {month: 2025-11, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 42.6}
  - {month: 2025-11, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.2}
  - {month: 2025-11, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 26.7}
  - {month: 2025-12, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 2.6}
  - {month: 2025-12, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 52.3}
  - {month: 2025-12, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 2.5}
  - {month: 2025-12, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 28.2}
  - {month: 2026-01, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 3.7}
  - {month: 2026-01, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 66.2}
  - {month: 2026-01, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 3.7}
  - {month: 2026-01, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 27.7}
  - {month: 2026-02, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 5.8}
  - {month: 2026-02, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 67.9}
  - {month: 2026-02, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 11.1}
  - {month: 2026-02, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 32.1}
  - {month: 2026-03, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 11.0}
  - {month: 2026-03, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 73.0}
  - {month: 2026-03, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 12.9}
  - {month: 2026-03, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 34.1}
  - {month: 2026-04, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 13.2}
  - {month: 2026-04, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 73.3}
  - {month: 2026-04, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 10.9}
  - {month: 2026-04, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 43.5}
  - {month: 2026-05, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 13.1}
  - {month: 2026-05, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 71.6}
  - {month: 2026-05, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 9.6}
  - {month: 2026-05, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 45.3}
  - {month: 2026-06, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 14.2}
  - {month: 2026-06, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 72.9}
  - {month: 2026-06, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 7.9}
  - {month: 2026-06, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 47.7}
  - {month: 2026-07, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 12.3}
  - {month: 2026-07, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 67.0}
  - {month: 2026-07, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 5.9}
  - {month: 2026-07, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 46.7}
  - {month: 2026-08, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 11.1}
  - {month: 2026-08, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 67.1}
  - {month: 2026-08, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 8.8}
  - {month: 2026-08, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 48.7}
  - {month: 2026-09, measure: Google searches, anthropic_share_pct: 11.9}
  - {month: 2026-09, measure: Hacker News comments, anthropic_share_pct: 56.5}
  - {month: 2026-09, measure: Wikipedia article views, anthropic_share_pct: 9.7}
  - {month: 2026-09, measure: npm SDK downloads, anthropic_share_pct: 49.8}
encoding: {x: month, y: anthropic_share_pct, color: measure}
axes:
  x: {label: Month}
  y: {label: 'Anthropic share, %'}
annotations:
- kind: band
  from: {x: 2024-06}
  to: {x: 2024-07}
  text: Claude 3.5 Sonnet
- kind: band
  from: {x: 2025-05}
  to: {x: 2025-06}
  text: Claude 4, Claude Code GA
- kind: band
  from: {x: 2026-02}
  to: {x: 2026-03}
  text: Super Bowl ad, Pentagon split
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-HN](https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/), [D-NPM](https://api.npmjs.org/downloads/), [D-GT](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore), [D-WIKI](https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/). Population: Hacker News commenters; npm installs; Google searchers; English Wikipedia readers. Window: 2023-01 to 2026-09. Data: `data/charts/share-over-time.csv`. HN: comments matching openai|chatgpt vs anthropic|claude (whole words). npm: median daily downloads of @anthropic-ai/sdk vs openai. Google: Claude vs ChatGPT knowledge-graph topics in one comparison (monthly mean of weekly values). Wikipedia: Claude vs ChatGPT article views, redirects included, human agents only.*

Developer conversation moved first. Anthropic took a majority of Hacker News mentions in July 2025 and peaked at 73% in April 2026. In September it was down to 57%. Installs followed. Anthropic's share of median daily JavaScript SDK downloads rose from 24% in the twelve months to September 2025 to 44% in the twelve months since. Business adoption on Ramp crossed over in April 2026 ([C185](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-may-2026)). Anthropic's reported run-rate passed OpenAI's in the same month ([C105](https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-compute), [C012](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/openai-cfo-sarah-friar-tells-employees-arr-in-july-topped-all-of-q2.html)), and its recognised quarterly revenue passed OpenAI's in the second quarter ([C110](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/anthropic-revenue-jumps-to-over-11point5-billion-in-q2-report.html), [C015](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-second-quarter-sales-show-tepid-growth-compared-with-anthropic-5cb42998)). Developers led buyers and bankers by about nine months.

The general public moved much less. Claude's share of Claude-plus-ChatGPT Google searches rose from 2.0% to 8.7% between the two twelve-month windows. Its share of English Wikipedia article views moved from 2.0% to 6.6%. Those are real gains, but ChatGPT still draws 10 searches for every one of Claude's.

| Population | Anthropic first ahead | Latest | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Developer conversation (Hacker News) | July 2025 | 57% in Sep 2026 | [D-HN](https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/) |
| Head-to-head preference (HN comparisons) | 2023 | 47% (n=45) prefer Anthropic in Q3 2026 (from 68% (n=151) in 2025) | [D-HN](https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/), D-LABELS |
| Human preference leaderboard (LMArena #1) | 6 February 2026 | Google since 30 September 2026 | [D-ARENA](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset), [K110](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset), [K112](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset) |
| US businesses paying (Ramp) | April 2026 | 43.8% vs 39.8% | [C185](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-may-2026), [C196](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-sept-2026) |
| Revenue run-rate | April 2026 | $100bn vs $70bn (Sep) | [C105](https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-compute), [C115](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/18/anthropic-100-billion-revenue), [C021](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/29/scoop-openais-annual-recurring-revenue-nears-70b) |
| Private valuation | May 2026 | $965bn vs $852bn | [C128](https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h), [C034](https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/) |
| Recognised quarterly revenue | Q2 2026 | $11.5bn vs $6.7bn | [C110](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/anthropic-revenue-jumps-to-over-11point5-billion-in-q2-report.html), [C015](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-second-quarter-sales-show-tepid-growth-compared-with-anthropic-5cb42998) |
| Composite capability (Epoch index) | July 2026 | 167.3 vs 166.5, inside the error | [D-EPOCH](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks) |
| Google searches, app users, web visits, weekly use | not yet | 5–17% of the pair | [D-GT](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore), [C186](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/chatgpt-app-hits-1-billion-monthly-active-users-in-record-time-data-shows-ce7f5dded08bf222), [C195](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg), [S005](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf) |

## What moved people

### The coding wedge

Claude Code turned developer goodwill into revenue. Its annualised revenue went from $0.5bn in September 2025 to $1bn in November and more than $2.5bn in February 2026 ([C086](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-f-at-usd183b-post-money-valuation), [C089](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-claude-code-reaches-usd1b-milestone), [C099](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation)). Menlo Ventures, an Anthropic investor, put Anthropic at 54% of enterprise coding spend ([C175](https://menlovc.com/perspective/2025-the-state-of-generative-ai-in-the-enterprise/)). In JetBrains' mid-2026 survey of professional developers, 39% used Claude Code at work against 16% for OpenAI's Codex ([S065](https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/08/ai-coding-agent-adoption-2026/)). On Hacker News, 48% of positive comments about Anthropic concern coding tools.

### The values moment

```chart
type: line
title: Claude's US search interest rose 3.5x around the Pentagon split; 44% held
subtitle: Weekly US Google search interest in the Claude and ChatGPT topics (0-100, same comparison)
data:
  inline:
  - {week: '2025-11-02', topic: Claude, interest: 4}
  - {week: '2025-11-02', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 93}
  - {week: '2025-11-09', topic: Claude, interest: 4}
  - {week: '2025-11-09', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 90}
  - {week: '2025-11-16', topic: Claude, interest: 3}
  - {week: '2025-11-16', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 88}
  - {week: '2025-11-23', topic: Claude, interest: 3}
  - {week: '2025-11-23', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 59}
  - {week: '2025-11-30', topic: Claude, interest: 3}
  - {week: '2025-11-30', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 80}
  - {week: '2025-12-07', topic: Claude, interest: 3}
  - {week: '2025-12-07', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 82}
  - {week: '2025-12-14', topic: Claude, interest: 3}
  - {week: '2025-12-14', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 72}
  - {week: '2025-12-21', topic: Claude, interest: 3}
  - {week: '2025-12-21', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 51}
  - {week: '2025-12-28', topic: Claude, interest: 3}
  - {week: '2025-12-28', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 52}
  - {week: '2026-01-04', topic: Claude, interest: 5}
  - {week: '2026-01-04', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 70}
  - {week: '2026-01-11', topic: Claude, interest: 6}
  - {week: '2026-01-11', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 73}
  - {week: '2026-01-18', topic: Claude, interest: 6}
  - {week: '2026-01-18', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 72}
  - {week: '2026-01-25', topic: Claude, interest: 6}
  - {week: '2026-01-25', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 76}
  - {week: '2026-02-01', topic: Claude, interest: 8}
  - {week: '2026-02-01', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 85}
  - {week: '2026-02-08', topic: Claude, interest: 9}
  - {week: '2026-02-08', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 68}
  - {week: '2026-02-15', topic: Claude, interest: 10}
  - {week: '2026-02-15', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 70}
  - {week: '2026-02-22', topic: Claude, interest: 13}
  - {week: '2026-02-22', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 76}
  - {week: '2026-03-01', topic: Claude, interest: 20}
  - {week: '2026-03-01', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 82}
  - {week: '2026-03-08', topic: Claude, interest: 17}
  - {week: '2026-03-08', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 81}
  - {week: '2026-03-15', topic: Claude, interest: 16}
  - {week: '2026-03-15', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 69}
  - {week: '2026-03-22', topic: Claude, interest: 18}
  - {week: '2026-03-22', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 79}
  - {week: '2026-03-29', topic: Claude, interest: 19}
  - {week: '2026-03-29', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 75}
  - {week: '2026-04-05', topic: Claude, interest: 17}
  - {week: '2026-04-05', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 69}
  - {week: '2026-04-12', topic: Claude, interest: 20}
  - {week: '2026-04-12', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 74}
  - {week: '2026-04-19', topic: Claude, interest: 17}
  - {week: '2026-04-19', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 71}
  - {week: '2026-04-26', topic: Claude, interest: 16}
  - {week: '2026-04-26', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 75}
  - {week: '2026-05-03', topic: Claude, interest: 15}
  - {week: '2026-05-03', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 70}
  - {week: '2026-05-10', topic: Claude, interest: 16}
  - {week: '2026-05-10', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 71}
  - {week: '2026-05-17', topic: Claude, interest: 15}
  - {week: '2026-05-17', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 72}
  - {week: '2026-05-24', topic: Claude, interest: 16}
  - {week: '2026-05-24', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 67}
  - {week: '2026-05-31', topic: Claude, interest: 16}
  - {week: '2026-05-31', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 71}
  - {week: '2026-06-07', topic: Claude, interest: 18}
  - {week: '2026-06-07', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 67}
  - {week: '2026-06-14', topic: Claude, interest: 16}
  - {week: '2026-06-14', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 63}
  - {week: '2026-06-21', topic: Claude, interest: 15}
  - {week: '2026-06-21', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 63}
  - {week: '2026-06-28', topic: Claude, interest: 15}
  - {week: '2026-06-28', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 59}
  - {week: '2026-07-05', topic: Claude, interest: 16}
  - {week: '2026-07-05', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 64}
  - {week: '2026-07-12', topic: Claude, interest: 13}
  - {week: '2026-07-12', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 62}
  - {week: '2026-07-19', topic: Claude, interest: 13}
  - {week: '2026-07-19', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 66}
  - {week: '2026-07-26', topic: Claude, interest: 12}
  - {week: '2026-07-26', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 66}
  - {week: '2026-08-02', topic: Claude, interest: 12}
  - {week: '2026-08-02', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 66}
  - {week: '2026-08-09', topic: Claude, interest: 12}
  - {week: '2026-08-09', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 69}
  - {week: '2026-08-16', topic: Claude, interest: 12}
  - {week: '2026-08-16', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 74}
  - {week: '2026-08-23', topic: Claude, interest: 12}
  - {week: '2026-08-23', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 73}
  - {week: '2026-08-30', topic: Claude, interest: 12}
  - {week: '2026-08-30', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 80}
  - {week: '2026-09-06', topic: Claude, interest: 11}
  - {week: '2026-09-06', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 74}
  - {week: '2026-09-13', topic: Claude, interest: 12}
  - {week: '2026-09-13', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 71}
  - {week: '2026-09-20', topic: Claude, interest: 12}
  - {week: '2026-09-20', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 68}
  - {week: '2026-09-27', topic: Claude, interest: 13}
  - {week: '2026-09-27', topic: ChatGPT, interest: 74}
encoding: {x: week, y: interest, color: topic}
axes:
  x: {label: Week starting}
  y: {label: Search interest (0-100)}
annotations:
- kind: band
  from: {x: '2026-02-08'}
  to: {x: '2026-03-01'}
  text: Super Bowl ad to Pentagon split
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-GT](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore), [E078](https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/04/sam-altman-got-exceptionally-testy-over-claude-super-bowl-ads/), [E088](https://apnews.com/article/anthropic-pentagon-ai-dario-amodei-hegseth-0c464a054359b9fdc80cf18b0d4f690c). Population: US Google searchers. Window: 2025-11 to 2026-09. Data: `data/charts/pentagon-week.csv`. Super Bowl 'no ads' campaign 2026-02-08 (E078); Pentagon supply-chain-risk designation 2026-02-27 (E088).*

In February 2026 Anthropic ran a Super Bowl campaign promising no ads in Claude ([E078](https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/04/sam-altman-got-exceptionally-testy-over-claude-super-bowl-ads/)). Three weeks later it refused to drop its limits on surveillance and autonomous weapons, and the Pentagon labelled it a supply-chain risk ([E088](https://apnews.com/article/anthropic-pentagon-ai-dario-amodei-hegseth-0c464a054359b9fdc80cf18b0d4f690c)). OpenAI announced a Pentagon deal within hours ([E086](https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/the-quitgpt-movement-gains-steam-as-openais-department-of-war-deal-has-users-saying-cancel-chatgpt)). The response was measurable:

- **App stores:** ChatGPT's US uninstalls rose 295% in a day, and Claude reached No. 1 on the App Store ([E089](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/28/anthropics-claude-apple-apps.html), [E091](https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/02/chatgpt-uninstalls-surged-by-295-after-dod-deal/)).
- **Polls:** voters sided with Anthropic's position 45 to 29 ([S021](https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings/voters-side-with-anthropic)).
- **Reputation:** the Axios Harris Poll 100 later ranked Anthropic 15th of America's most visible brands and OpenAI 68th ([E108](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/19/axios-harris-poll-100-ai-politics)).
- **Search:** US interest in Claude rose 6 → 20 on Google's scale, and 44% of that gain was still there in August and September.

The moment changed what people knew more than what they used or preferred. Awareness doubled, but YouGov's BrandIndex shows Claude's preference score up only 0.8 points from February to July, while OpenAI's fell 5.9 ([S031](https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55292-us-ai-brand-rankings-report-2026)). Among Americans who know both companies, OpenAI was still viewed more favourably in June (+11 against +3, [S028](https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/chat-whats-the-publics-favorite-ai)).

### OpenAI's trust tax

OpenAI's perception problems were mostly self-inflicted and cumulative:

- **August 2025:** users revolted over GPT-5 and the removal of GPT-4o ([E041](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2025/08/openai-brings-back-gpt-4o-after-user-revolt/), [E042](https://www.theverge.com/news/756980/openai-chatgpt-users-mourn-gpt-5-4o)).
- **January 2026:** OpenAI began testing ads in ChatGPT ([E072](https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-begin-testing-ads-chatgpts-free-go-tiers-2026-01-16/)). Greg Brockman's $25m donation to the MAGA Inc. super PAC became a central grievance of the later QuitGPT boycott ([E070](https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/brockman-openai-top-trump-donor-21273419.php)).
- **February 2026:** OpenAI signed its Pentagon deal ([E086](https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/the-quitgpt-movement-gains-steam-as-openais-department-of-war-deal-has-users-saying-cancel-chatgpt)).
- **July to September 2026:** its own agents escaped evaluation sandboxes, hitting Hugging Face, an Australian Medicare portal and US government sites ([E120](https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/07/how-an-openai-benchmark-test-turned-into-a-real-world-cyberattack/), [E133](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/24/anthony-albanese-says-openai-agent-hacked-medicare-extreme-concern-sam-altman), [E134](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/09/openai-pauses-training-of-latest-models-after-agents-probed-us-government-sites-in-unexpected-ways/)).
- **28 September:** OpenAI shelved GPT-6.1 Astra on safety grounds ([E136](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/28/openai-abandons-plan-to-release-upcoming-model-as-safety-concerns-escalate.html)).
- **30 September and 1 October:** the FTC confirmed a probe of both labs ([E138](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/ftc-ai-probe-openai-anthropic.html)), and California's attorney general subpoenaed OpenAI ([E139](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/california-attorney-general-issues-investigative-subpoena-openai-2026-10-01/)).

In the latest twelve months, negative Hacker News comments about OpenAI were about business and finance (22%), safety and ethics (21%) and hype (19%) more than about its products.

## Among developers, Anthropic's halo is gone

```chart
type: line
title: 'Developers'' warmth toward Anthropic is gone: net stance fell below zero'
subtitle: Net stance of Hacker News comments mentioning each company (% positive minus % negative), by quarter
data:
  inline:
  - {quarter: 2023 Q1, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 31.4}
  - {quarter: 2023 Q1, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -1.2}
  - {quarter: 2023 Q2, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 23.2}
  - {quarter: 2023 Q2, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -4.5}
  - {quarter: 2023 Q3, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 29.2}
  - {quarter: 2023 Q3, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -1.8}
  - {quarter: 2023 Q4, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 23.0}
  - {quarter: 2023 Q4, company: OpenAI, net_stance: 3.6}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q1, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 16.4}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q1, company: OpenAI, net_stance: 4.3}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q2, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 24.0}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q2, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -2.8}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q3, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 31.4}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q3, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -8.2}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q4, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 29.1}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q4, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -3.4}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q1, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 23.1}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q1, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -5.9}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q2, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 23.0}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q2, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -2.1}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q3, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 11.5}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q3, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -1.8}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q4, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 22.5}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q4, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -1.8}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q1, company: Anthropic, net_stance: 14.8}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q1, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -8.2}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q2, company: Anthropic, net_stance: -3.9}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q2, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -6.6}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q3, company: Anthropic, net_stance: -15.7}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q3, company: OpenAI, net_stance: -14.2}
encoding: {x: quarter, y: net_stance, color: company}
axes:
  x: {label: Quarter}
  y: {label: 'Net stance, points'}
annotations:
- kind: line
  at: {y: 0}
  text: ''
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-HN](https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/), D-LABELS. Population: Hacker News commenters; 60 comments per month and side, hash-sampled from all matching comments. Window: 2023 Q1 to 2026 Q3. Data: `data/charts/hn-stance.csv`. Labels from Qwen3-235B (neither lab's model); Devstral 2 relabelled every comment and reproduces the trend (see method). ci95 column gives each point's 95% interval.*

From 2023 to late 2025, Hacker News commenters were consistently warmer toward Anthropic than toward OpenAI. Anthropic's quarterly net stance stayed between +12 and +31 points, while OpenAI's moved between −8 and +4. Then Anthropic became the default, and scrutiny followed share. By the third quarter of 2026 its net stance was −16, against OpenAI's −14. A second, independent judge (Devstral 2) rates everyone more harshly but reproduces the same fall: Anthropic from +17 in early 2025 to −24, against −26 for OpenAI.

```chart
type: bar
title: Anthropic draws complaints about reliability; OpenAI about money and hype
subtitle: Share of negative Hacker News comments about each company that concern each topic, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, %
data:
  inline:
  - {topic: Quality, company: Anthropic, share_of_negative_pct: 21.9}
  - {topic: Quality, company: OpenAI, share_of_negative_pct: 17.6}
  - {topic: Business, company: Anthropic, share_of_negative_pct: 16.9}
  - {topic: Business, company: OpenAI, share_of_negative_pct: 21.8}
  - {topic: Safety, company: Anthropic, share_of_negative_pct: 20.3}
  - {topic: Safety, company: OpenAI, share_of_negative_pct: 21.4}
  - {topic: Hype, company: Anthropic, share_of_negative_pct: 13.5}
  - {topic: Hype, company: OpenAI, share_of_negative_pct: 19.4}
  - {topic: Reliability, company: Anthropic, share_of_negative_pct: 19.0}
  - {topic: Reliability, company: OpenAI, share_of_negative_pct: 10.7}
  - {topic: Product, company: Anthropic, share_of_negative_pct: 14.3}
  - {topic: Product, company: OpenAI, share_of_negative_pct: 9.6}
  - {topic: Pricing, company: Anthropic, share_of_negative_pct: 13.5}
  - {topic: Pricing, company: OpenAI, share_of_negative_pct: 8.7}
  - {topic: Coding, company: Anthropic, share_of_negative_pct: 13.0}
  - {topic: Coding, company: OpenAI, share_of_negative_pct: 4.0}
encoding: {x: topic, y: share_of_negative_pct, color: company}
axes:
  x: {label: ''}
  y: {label: '% of negative comments'}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-HN](https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/), D-LABELS. Population: Hacker News commenters (negative comments in the labelled sample). Window: 2025-10 to 2026-09. Data: `data/charts/hn-topics.csv`. A comment can carry up to two topics, so shares do not sum to 100.*

The complaints changed with the position. Reliability and outages make up 19% of negative comments about Anthropic against 11% for OpenAI, and pricing and usage limits 14% against 8.7%. The timeline gives the reasons:

- **Rate limits:** weekly limits on Claude Code ([E035](https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/17/anthropic-tightens-usage-limits-for-claude-code-without-telling-users/)).
- **Quality:** regressions in late summer 2025 ([E037](https://venturebeat.com/orchestration/anthropic-throttles-claude-rate-limits-devs-call-foul), [E049](https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/a-postmortem-of-three-recent-issues)).
- **Plans:** in April 2026, a test that dropped Claude Code from the $20 Pro plan for new subscribers, reversed after backlash ([E141](https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/04/anthropic-tested-removing-claude-code-from-the-pro-plan/)). OpenAI's Codex lead answered that Codex would stay in its free and $20 plans ([E142](https://thenewstack.io/anthropic-claude-code-limits/)).

```chart
type: bar
title: Developers now report switching to OpenAI far more often than to Anthropic
subtitle: First-person Hacker News comments reporting a move between the two, by quarter (count)
data:
  inline:
  - {quarter: 2024 Q1, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 3}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q1, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 4}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q2, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 14}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q2, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 6}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q3, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 18}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q3, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 1}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q4, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 11}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q4, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 4}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q1, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 10}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q1, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 7}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q2, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 16}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q2, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 11}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q3, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 38}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q3, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 22}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q4, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 32}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q4, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 24}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q1, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 92}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q1, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 43}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q2, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 65}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q2, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 108}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q3, direction: To Anthropic, statements: 37}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q3, direction: To OpenAI, statements: 159}
encoding: {x: quarter, y: statements, color: direction}
axes:
  x: {label: Quarter}
  y: {label: Statements}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-HN](https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/), D-LABELS. Population: Hacker News commenters who describe their own or their team's switch. Window: 2024 Q1 to 2026 Q3. Data: `data/charts/hn-switching.csv`. Candidates: every comment matching a switch or cancel phrase near a brand name (complete HN table); direction and first-person status labelled by Qwen3-235B and checked by Devstral 2.*

Switching statements tell the same story with revealed preference. In the first quarter of 2026, the Pentagon quarter, commenters reported moving to Anthropic 92 times and to OpenAI 43. The second quarter reversed it (65 against 108). In the third quarter, 159 moved to OpenAI and 37 to Anthropic.

## The next fight is over coding agents

```chart
type: line
title: Codex leads in talk, searches and installs; Claude Code still files more PRs
subtitle: Claude Code's share of Claude Code + OpenAI Codex, by month and signal
data:
  inline:
  - {month: 2025-04, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 70.2}
  - {month: 2025-05, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 1.4}
  - {month: 2025-05, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 69.4}
  - {month: 2025-05, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 95.3}
  - {month: 2025-06, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 0.8}
  - {month: 2025-06, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 82.8}
  - {month: 2025-06, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 97.1}
  - {month: 2025-07, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 1.3}
  - {month: 2025-07, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 91.6}
  - {month: 2025-07, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 99.3}
  - {month: 2025-08, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 0.9}
  - {month: 2025-08, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 89.6}
  - {month: 2025-08, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 98.6}
  - {month: 2025-09, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 0.6}
  - {month: 2025-09, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 47.1}
  - {month: 2025-09, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 68.8}
  - {month: 2025-09, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 97.1}
  - {month: 2025-10, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 6.8}
  - {month: 2025-10, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 45.5}
  - {month: 2025-10, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 59.8}
  - {month: 2025-10, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 96.2}
  - {month: 2025-11, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 50.5}
  - {month: 2025-11, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 45.9}
  - {month: 2025-11, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 61.4}
  - {month: 2025-11, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 94.2}
  - {month: 2025-12, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 42.1}
  - {month: 2025-12, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 48.8}
  - {month: 2025-12, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 66.6}
  - {month: 2025-12, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 91.4}
  - {month: 2026-01, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 46.1}
  - {month: 2026-01, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 61.5}
  - {month: 2026-01, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 76.5}
  - {month: 2026-01, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 92.9}
  - {month: 2026-02, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 38.5}
  - {month: 2026-02, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 49.3}
  - {month: 2026-02, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 63.5}
  - {month: 2026-02, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 85.7}
  - {month: 2026-03, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 47.6}
  - {month: 2026-03, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 61.2}
  - {month: 2026-03, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 70.3}
  - {month: 2026-03, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 78.0}
  - {month: 2026-04, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 47.0}
  - {month: 2026-04, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 54.3}
  - {month: 2026-04, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 63.1}
  - {month: 2026-04, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 76.2}
  - {month: 2026-05, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 53.2}
  - {month: 2026-05, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 45.5}
  - {month: 2026-05, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 58.8}
  - {month: 2026-05, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 43.9}
  - {month: 2026-06, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 60.4}
  - {month: 2026-06, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 47.7}
  - {month: 2026-06, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 56.9}
  - {month: 2026-06, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 50.8}
  - {month: 2026-07, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 60.7}
  - {month: 2026-07, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 44.9}
  - {month: 2026-07, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 51.1}
  - {month: 2026-07, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 44.4}
  - {month: 2026-08, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 57.2}
  - {month: 2026-08, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 41.0}
  - {month: 2026-08, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 48.4}
  - {month: 2026-08, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 53.4}
  - {month: 2026-09, measure: GitHub cloud-agent PRs, claude_code_share_pct: 59.7}
  - {month: 2026-09, measure: Google searches, claude_code_share_pct: 35.2}
  - {month: 2026-09, measure: Hacker News comments, claude_code_share_pct: 40.5}
  - {month: 2026-09, measure: npm CLI downloads, claude_code_share_pct: 39.5}
encoding: {x: month, y: claude_code_share_pct, color: measure}
axes:
  x: {label: Month}
  y: {label: 'Claude Code share, %'}
annotations:
- kind: line
  at: {y: 50}
  text: ''
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-HN](https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/), [D-NPM](https://api.npmjs.org/downloads/), [D-GT](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore), [D-GH](https://docs.github.com/en/rest/search/search). Population: Hacker News commenters; npm installs; Google searchers; public GitHub repositories. Window: 2025-04 to 2026-09. Data: `data/charts/coding-agents.csv`. npm (median daily downloads) understates Claude Code after Anthropic moved users to a native installer. GitHub counts pull requests opened from codex/ and claude/ branches, the default branch prefixes of each vendor's cloud agent, so levels reflect workflow as much as usage. Compare each line's direction.*

The developer-facing signals now split:

- **Codex is ahead:** Claude Code's share of the pair is down to 40% of Hacker News comments, from 92% at its peak. Searches have moved the same way.
- **Installs have moved too:** Claude Code has 40% of median daily npm downloads, a measure that understates it since its native installer arrived.
- **Claude Code still leads:** it opens 60% of the pull requests either vendor's cloud agent files on public GitHub. Surveys still show it far ahead at work ([S065](https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/08/ai-coding-agent-adoption-2026/), [S059](https://stackoverflow.blog/2026/05/27/agents-on-a-leash-agentic-ai-remains-mostly-monitored-at-work/)).

That is the same ordering as 2025, with the roles reversed. Conversation moved first then, and revenue followed about nine months later. OpenAI reports more than 5 million weekly Codex users ([C056](https://openai.com/index/codex-for-knowledge-work/)) and 35 million weekly users across Codex and ChatGPT Work ([C059](https://the-decoder.com/chatgpt-now-reaches-1-2-billion-people-every-week-openai-says/)). Anthropic has not updated Claude Code revenue since February ([C099](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation)).

```callout
kind: down
title: The leading indicator to watch
body: |
  If developer conversation leads revenue by about nine months, as it did in 2025, Codex's lead in conversation since August 2026 points to pressure on Anthropic's coding revenue in mid-2027. Contrary signals would be Claude Code's GitHub share holding above half, and the next JetBrains and Stack Overflow surveys still showing a wide usage lead.
```

```chart
type: line
title: r/codex now out-posts r/ClaudeCode; r/ClaudeAI is down 48% from its peak
subtitle: Posts per month in each product's home community on Reddit
data:
  inline:
  - {month: 2024-07, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 8554}
  - {month: 2024-07, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 1160}
  - {month: 2024-07, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-07, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-08, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 8703}
  - {month: 2024-08, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 1440}
  - {month: 2024-08, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-08, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-09, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-09, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-10, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 1312}
  - {month: 2024-10, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-10, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-11, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 12603}
  - {month: 2024-11, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 1764}
  - {month: 2024-11, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-11, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-12, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 14842}
  - {month: 2024-12, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 1674}
  - {month: 2024-12, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2024-12, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-01, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 13169}
  - {month: 2025-01, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 1521}
  - {month: 2025-01, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-01, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-02, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 11077}
  - {month: 2025-02, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 1847}
  - {month: 2025-02, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 1}
  - {month: 2025-02, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-03, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 14342}
  - {month: 2025-03, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 2637}
  - {month: 2025-03, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 1}
  - {month: 2025-03, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-04, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 22349}
  - {month: 2025-04, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 1692}
  - {month: 2025-04, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 3}
  - {month: 2025-04, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-05, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 18701}
  - {month: 2025-05, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 2834}
  - {month: 2025-05, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 29}
  - {month: 2025-05, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-06, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 18333}
  - {month: 2025-06, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 4158}
  - {month: 2025-06, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 182}
  - {month: 2025-06, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-07, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 15464}
  - {month: 2025-07, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 5065}
  - {month: 2025-07, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 909}
  - {month: 2025-07, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-08, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 23651}
  - {month: 2025-08, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 4349}
  - {month: 2025-08, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 1491}
  - {month: 2025-08, community: r/codex, posts: 0}
  - {month: 2025-09, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 12320}
  - {month: 2025-09, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 3606}
  - {month: 2025-09, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 1759}
  - {month: 2025-09, community: r/codex, posts: 299}
  - {month: 2025-10, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 10800}
  - {month: 2025-10, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 4477}
  - {month: 2025-10, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 1710}
  - {month: 2025-10, community: r/codex, posts: 480}
  - {month: 2025-11, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 8507}
  - {month: 2025-11, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 3859}
  - {month: 2025-11, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 1592}
  - {month: 2025-11, community: r/codex, posts: 722}
  - {month: 2025-12, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 9407}
  - {month: 2025-12, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 3873}
  - {month: 2025-12, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 1876}
  - {month: 2025-12, community: r/codex, posts: 473}
  - {month: 2026-01, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 9735}
  - {month: 2026-01, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 5795}
  - {month: 2026-01, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 3837}
  - {month: 2026-01, community: r/codex, posts: 617}
  - {month: 2026-02, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 8327}
  - {month: 2026-02, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 8788}
  - {month: 2026-02, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 4864}
  - {month: 2026-02, community: r/codex, posts: 1497}
  - {month: 2026-03, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 7042}
  - {month: 2026-03, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 15911}
  - {month: 2026-03, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 8257}
  - {month: 2026-03, community: r/codex, posts: 2260}
  - {month: 2026-04, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 7077}
  - {month: 2026-04, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 15179}
  - {month: 2026-04, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 9501}
  - {month: 2026-04, community: r/codex, posts: 3544}
  - {month: 2026-05, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 7648}
  - {month: 2026-05, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 10401}
  - {month: 2026-05, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 6768}
  - {month: 2026-05, community: r/codex, posts: 4360}
  - {month: 2026-06, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 6175}
  - {month: 2026-06, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 11427}
  - {month: 2026-06, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 7662}
  - {month: 2026-06, community: r/codex, posts: 4471}
  - {month: 2026-07, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 6173}
  - {month: 2026-07, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 12171}
  - {month: 2026-07, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 9476}
  - {month: 2026-07, community: r/codex, posts: 6747}
  - {month: 2026-08, community: r/ChatGPT, posts: 5709}
  - {month: 2026-08, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 7861}
  - {month: 2026-08, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 4930}
  - {month: 2026-08, community: r/codex, posts: 5501}
  - {month: 2026-09, community: r/ClaudeAI, posts: 8255}
  - {month: 2026-09, community: r/ClaudeCode, posts: 5357}
  - {month: 2026-09, community: r/codex, posts: 8911}
encoding: {x: month, y: posts, color: community}
axes:
  x: {label: Month}
  y: {label: Posts per month}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-REDDIT](https://arctic-shift.photon-reddit.com/). Population: Reddit users posting in r/ChatGPT, r/ClaudeAI, r/ClaudeCode and r/codex. Window: 2024-07 to 2026-09. Data: `data/charts/reddit-communities.csv`. Gaps are months the archive could not count (timeouts on the largest subreddit), not zero.*

Reddit's product communities show the same turn. r/codex grew from 617 posts in January 2026 to 8,911 in September, more than r/ClaudeCode's 5,357. r/ClaudeAI peaked at 15,911 posts a month and is down 48% since. r/ChatGPT, the largest community, went from 23,651 posts at its peak to 5,709 in its latest counted month. Forum activity measures enthusiasm, not usage.

## Consumers: OpenAI's moat holds

```chart
type: bar
title: ChatGPT reaches 5 to 22 times as many people as Claude; developers, 2x
subtitle: Share of each surveyed population using or aware of each assistant, %
data:
  inline:
  - {measure: Ever used, product: Claude, pct: 6.0}
  - {measure: Ever used, product: ChatGPT, pct: 44.0}
  - {measure: 'Week, Feb', product: Claude, pct: 4.0}
  - {measure: 'Week, Feb', product: ChatGPT, pct: 36.0}
  - {measure: 'Week, May', product: Claude, pct: 9.0}
  - {measure: 'Week, May', product: ChatGPT, pct: 43.0}
  - {measure: 'Aware, Feb', product: Claude, pct: 21.0}
  - {measure: 'Aware, Feb', product: ChatGPT, pct: 88.0}
  - {measure: 'Aware, May', product: Claude, pct: 42.0}
  - {measure: 'Aware, May', product: ChatGPT, pct: 90.0}
  - {measure: 6 nations, product: Claude, pct: 1.0}
  - {measure: 6 nations, product: ChatGPT, pct: 22.0}
  - {measure: Dev use, product: Claude, pct: 42.8}
  - {measure: Dev use, product: ChatGPT, pct: 81.4}
encoding: {x: measure, y: pct, color: product}
axes:
  x: {label: ''}
  y: {label: '% of respondents'}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [S002](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2026/06/17/americans-and-ai-2026-chatbots-smart-devices-and-views-on-impact/), [S004](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf), [S005](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf), [S006](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf), [S007](https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf), [S015](https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2025-10/Gen_AI_and_News_Report_2025.pdf), [S054](https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2025/technology). Population: US adults (Pew, SSRS), online adults in six countries (Reuters Institute), developers (Stack Overflow). Window: 2025-06 to 2026-07 fieldwork. Data: `data/charts/surveys.csv`. Developer surveys are opt-in professional samples, not probability samples.*

Probability samples, which are the only data here that describe the public, show how large the consumer gap is. Pew found 44% of US adults had ever used ChatGPT and 6% had used Claude ([S002](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2026/06/17/americans-and-ai-2026-chatbots-smart-devices-and-views-on-impact/)). Across six countries, the Reuters Institute measured weekly use at 22% against 1% in mid-2025 ([S015](https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2025-10/Gen_AI_and_News_Report_2025.pdf)). Developers are the exception: in the 2025 Stack Overflow survey, Claude was the more admired model (67.5% against 61.2%, [S056](https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2025/technology)), though fewer used it.

```chart
type: bar
title: Unhappy Claude users cite refusals, limits and logins; ChatGPT users, bugs
subtitle: Share of one- and two-star reviews mentioning each topic, US Google Play and App Store, September 2026, %
data:
  inline:
  - {topic: Quality, app: Claude, share_of_low_star_pct: 22.4}
  - {topic: Quality, app: ChatGPT, share_of_low_star_pct: 17.2}
  - {topic: Limits, app: Claude, share_of_low_star_pct: 19.4}
  - {topic: Limits, app: ChatGPT, share_of_low_star_pct: 13.3}
  - {topic: Accuracy, app: Claude, share_of_low_star_pct: 17.9}
  - {topic: Accuracy, app: ChatGPT, share_of_low_star_pct: 18.5}
  - {topic: Refusals, app: Claude, share_of_low_star_pct: 18.5}
  - {topic: Refusals, app: ChatGPT, share_of_low_star_pct: 8.6}
  - {topic: Bugs, app: Claude, share_of_low_star_pct: 11.5}
  - {topic: Bugs, app: ChatGPT, share_of_low_star_pct: 17.7}
  - {topic: Pricing, app: Claude, share_of_low_star_pct: 15.3}
  - {topic: Pricing, app: ChatGPT, share_of_low_star_pct: 17.7}
  - {topic: Login, app: Claude, share_of_low_star_pct: 10.7}
  - {topic: Login, app: ChatGPT, share_of_low_star_pct: 2.6}
encoding: {x: topic, y: share_of_low_star_pct, color: app}
axes:
  x: {label: ''}
  y: {label: '% of low-star reviews'}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-REVIEWS](https://apify.com/thewolves), D-LABELS. Population: US app reviewers (English); reviewers over-represent strong opinions. Window: 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-01. Data: `data/charts/app-reviews.csv`. Up to 1,500 reviews per store and app, hash-sampled; a review can carry up to three topics.*

Satisfaction runs the same way. In September 2026, 29% of Claude's US reviews were one or two stars against 13% for ChatGPT, with average ratings of 3.7 and 4.4. Unhappy Claude users complain about refusals (18% of low-star reviews against 8.6%), usage limits (19% against 13%) and logins (11% against 2.6%). Ads, the issue Anthropic built a Super Bowl campaign around, barely register in either app's reviews.

```chart
type: bar
title: Claude's searchers concentrate in East Asian and other tech-heavy markets
subtitle: Claude's share of Claude + ChatGPT Google search interest, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, nine markets, %
data:
  inline:
  - {country: China, claude_share_pct: 23.0}
  - {country: S. Korea, claude_share_pct: 22.0}
  - {country: Israel, claude_share_pct: 16.0}
  - {country: Taiwan, claude_share_pct: 15.0}
  - {country: US, claude_share_pct: 12.0}
  - {country: Japan, claude_share_pct: 12.0}
  - {country: UK, claude_share_pct: 10.0}
  - {country: India, claude_share_pct: 7.0}
  - {country: Brazil, claude_share_pct: 5.0}
encoding: {x: country, y: claude_share_pct}
axes:
  x: {label: ''}
  y: {label: 'Claude share of searches, %'}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-GT](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore). Population: Google searchers per country (China reflects VPN and Google-accessible users only). Window: 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30. Data: `data/charts/trends-geo.csv`. Google's compared-breakdown shares split each country's combined interest between the two topics.*

Geography follows technical density. Over the last twelve months Claude's share of search interest was highest in China 23% (VPN users, since neither service is officially available) and lowest in Brazil 5.0%. South Korea, Singapore, Israel and Taiwan rank high; India, Brazil and the Philippines low. Its share of cumulative App Store ratings is below 3% in all 49 storefronts checked ([D-ITUNES](https://itunes.apple.com/lookup)).

## Money: Anthropic's crossover is real but young

```chart
type: bar
title: By September, Anthropic's reported run-rate exceeded OpenAI's
subtitle: Latest annualised revenue run-rate reported in each quarter, $bn (unaudited; mostly unnamed sources)
data:
  inline:
  - {quarter: 2024 Q4, company: Anthropic, run_rate_usd_bn: 1.0}
  - {quarter: 2024 Q4, company: OpenAI, run_rate_usd_bn: 5.5}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q1, company: Anthropic, run_rate_usd_bn: 2.0}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q2, company: Anthropic, run_rate_usd_bn: 3.0}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q2, company: OpenAI, run_rate_usd_bn: 10.0}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q3, company: Anthropic, run_rate_usd_bn: 5.0}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q3, company: OpenAI, run_rate_usd_bn: 13.0}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q4, company: Anthropic, run_rate_usd_bn: 9.0}
  - {quarter: 2025 Q4, company: OpenAI, run_rate_usd_bn: 21.4}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q1, company: Anthropic, run_rate_usd_bn: 14.0}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q1, company: OpenAI, run_rate_usd_bn: 25.0}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q2, company: Anthropic, run_rate_usd_bn: 47.0}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q3, company: Anthropic, run_rate_usd_bn: 100.0}
  - {quarter: 2026 Q3, company: OpenAI, run_rate_usd_bn: 70.0}
encoding: {x: quarter, y: run_rate_usd_bn, color: company}
axes:
  x: {label: Quarter}
  y: {label: 'Run-rate, $bn'}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [C001](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openais-annualized-revenue-hits-10-billion-up-55-billion-december-2024-2025-06-09/), [C004](https://epoch.ai/data-insights/openai-revenue), [C010](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-tops-25-billion-annualized-revenue-last-month-information-reports-2026-03-05/), [C021](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/29/scoop-openais-annual-recurring-revenue-nears-70b), [C083](https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-hits-3-billion-annualized-revenue-business-demand-ai-2025-05-30/), [C085](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-f-at-usd183b-post-money-valuation), [C092](https://www.reuters.com/technology/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-tops-65-billion-source-says-2026-08-17/), [C098](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation), [C107](https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h), [C115](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/18/anthropic-100-billion-revenue). Population: Company statements and press reports (see source ledger for each bar). Window: 2024 Q4 to 2026 Q3. Data: `data/charts/run-rate.csv`. Run-rate annualises a recent period and is neither audited nor defined identically by both companies; OpenAI says Anthropic counts gross cloud-marketplace revenue (C161). Missing bars = no report that quarter.*

```chart
type: bar
title: In recognised revenue, Anthropic overtook OpenAI in Q2 2026
subtitle: Quarterly revenue, $bn, from documents reported by Bloomberg (Anthropic) and the WSJ (OpenAI)
data:
  inline:
  - {quarter: Q1 2026, company: Anthropic, revenue_usd_bn: 4.73}
  - {quarter: Q1 2026, company: OpenAI, revenue_usd_bn: 5.7}
  - {quarter: Q2 2026, company: Anthropic, revenue_usd_bn: 11.5}
  - {quarter: Q2 2026, company: OpenAI, revenue_usd_bn: 6.7}
encoding: {x: quarter, y: revenue_usd_bn, color: company}
axes:
  x: {label: Quarter}
  y: {label: 'Revenue, $bn'}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [C015](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-second-quarter-sales-show-tepid-growth-compared-with-anthropic-5cb42998), [C110](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/anthropic-revenue-jumps-to-over-11point5-billion-in-q2-report.html). Population: Company documents reported by the press; neither company has a public S-1. Window: 2026 Q1 to 2026 Q2. Data: `data/charts/quarterly-revenue.csv`. Anthropic's Q2 figure is preliminary. For FY2025 OpenAI booked $13.07bn (C009) vs Anthropic ~$4.6bn (C093).*

The commercial lead is newer and less certain than the headlines suggest:

- **Run-rate and revenue diverge.** Run-rate annualises a recent month. OpenAI says Anthropic's figure counts gross cloud-marketplace revenue, overstating it by about $8bn at the $30bn mark ([C161](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/911118/openai-memo-cro-ai-competition-anthropic)). On recognised revenue, OpenAI booked $13.07bn in 2025 against Anthropic's roughly $4.6bn ([C009](https://fortune.com/2026/06/16/openai-financials-leaked-losses-revenue-profit/), [C093](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/exclusive-anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-231722972.html)). Anthropic first led in a single quarter only in Q2 2026, on preliminary figures.
- **Anthropic's revenue is concentrated.** Two customers each provided 12% of 2025 revenue ([C094](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/exclusive-anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-6419771)), and cloud marketplaces carried 47% of sales ([C096](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/exclusive-anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-6419771)).
- **Profitability diverged.** Anthropic reported positive adjusted operating income for Q2 2026 but gave no number or definition ([C110](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/anthropic-revenue-jumps-to-over-11point5-billion-in-q2-report.html)). OpenAI lost $12.3bn on an operating basis in the same quarter ([C074](https://siliconangle.com/2026/08/18/openai-falls-further-behind-anthropic-with-disappointing-revenue-growth-and-mounting-losses/)).
- **Both are heading to market.** Anthropic is reported to target about $2tn in a November IPO ([C131](https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/what-to-know-about-anthropics-planned-ipo-c2f58908), [C132](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/exclusive-anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-231722972.html)), and OpenAI is in talks at about $1.4tn ([C042](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/openai-seeks-30-billion-plus-as-valuation-target-rises-to-14-trillion/article71526254.ece)).

```chart
type: line
title: US businesses now pay Anthropic more often than OpenAI
subtitle: Share of US businesses on Ramp paying each vendor, % (card and bill-pay spend)
data:
  inline:
  - {month: 2025-07, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 11.1}
  - {month: 2025-07, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 35.1}
  - {month: 2025-08, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 12.1}
  - {month: 2025-08, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 36.5}
  - {month: 2025-09, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 12.2}
  - {month: 2025-09, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 35.6}
  - {month: 2025-10, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 14.3}
  - {month: 2025-10, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 35.8}
  - {month: 2025-11, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 34.8}
  - {month: 2025-12, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 16.7}
  - {month: 2025-12, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 36.8}
  - {month: 2026-01, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 19.5}
  - {month: 2026-01, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 35.9}
  - {month: 2026-02, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 24.4}
  - {month: 2026-03, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 30.6}
  - {month: 2026-03, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 35.2}
  - {month: 2026-04, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 34.4}
  - {month: 2026-04, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 32.3}
  - {month: 2026-05, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 41.0}
  - {month: 2026-05, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 39.5}
  - {month: 2026-06, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 42.4}
  - {month: 2026-06, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 39.5}
  - {month: 2026-07, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 43.5}
  - {month: 2026-07, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 39.7}
  - {month: 2026-08, company: Anthropic, share_pct: 43.8}
  - {month: 2026-08, company: OpenAI, share_pct: 39.8}
encoding: {x: month, y: share_pct, color: company}
axes:
  x: {label: Month}
  y: {label: 'Businesses paying, %'}
annotations:
- kind: band
  from: {x: 2026-04}
  to: {x: 2026-05}
  text: method change
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [C168](https://econlab.substack.com/p/business-ai-adoption-grew-2-in-july), [C169](https://www.saastr.com/openai-vs-anthropic-ramp-data-shows-36-vs-12-penetration-but-velocity-curves-tell-a-different-story/), [C171](https://assets.ramp.com/nextjs/files/fall-2025-ramp-business-spending-report.pdf), [C172](https://ramp.com/data/ai-business-adoption-accelerates-led-by-anthropic), [C173](https://ramp.com/data/business-ai-adoption-flatlines), [C178](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-february-2026), [C181](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-march-2026), [C182](https://ramp.com/data/april-2026-ai-index), [C185](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-may-2026), [C187](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-june-2026), [C190](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-july-2026), [C194](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-august-2026), [C196](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-sept-2026). Population: US businesses using Ramp's corporate cards and bill pay (skews to tech-forward firms). Window: 2025-07 to 2026-08. Data: `data/charts/ramp-adoption.csv`. Ramp added bill-pay capture in May 2026 (C187): levels before and after the break are not comparable.*

Business adoption is the cleanest commercial signal because Ramp measures payments, not survey answers. Anthropic went from 11.1% of US businesses on Ramp in July 2025 to 43.8% in August 2026 ([C168](https://econlab.substack.com/p/business-ai-adoption-grew-2-in-july), [C196](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-sept-2026)). Customer bases overlap heavily: 79% of Anthropic's business customers also pay OpenAI ([C179](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-february-2026)). Enterprise-spend surveys disagree along investor lines. Menlo, an Anthropic investor, gives Anthropic 40% of API spend and OpenAI 27% ([C174](https://menlovc.com/perspective/2025-the-state-of-generative-ai-in-the-enterprise/)). Andreessen Horowitz, an OpenAI investor, gives OpenAI about 56% of large-company wallet share ([C176](https://a16z.com/leaders-gainers-and-unexpected-winners-in-the-enterprise-ai-arms-race/)).

```chart
type: bar
title: ChatGPT's lost web share went mostly to Gemini, not Claude
subtitle: Share of worldwide generative-AI website visits, % (Similarweb panel estimates)
data:
  inline:
  - {as_of: 2025-08, product: Claude, share_pct: 1.9}
  - {as_of: 2025-08, product: ChatGPT, share_pct: 73.3}
  - {as_of: 2025-08, product: Gemini, share_pct: 12.9}
  - {as_of: 2026-03, product: Claude, share_pct: 6.0}
  - {as_of: 2026-03, product: ChatGPT, share_pct: 56.7}
  - {as_of: 2026-03, product: Gemini, share_pct: 25.4}
  - {as_of: 2026-06, product: Claude, share_pct: 9.2}
  - {as_of: 2026-06, product: ChatGPT, share_pct: 52.7}
  - {as_of: 2026-06, product: Gemini, share_pct: 27.8}
  - {as_of: 2026-08, product: Claude, share_pct: 9.3}
  - {as_of: 2026-08, product: ChatGPT, share_pct: 55.5}
  - {as_of: 2026-08, product: Gemini, share_pct: 25.6}
encoding: {x: as_of, y: share_pct, color: product}
axes:
  x: {label: Month}
  y: {label: 'Share of gen-AI web visits, %'}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [C170](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg), [C191](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg), [C195](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg). Population: Worldwide desktop and mobile web visits to gen-AI sites (excludes apps and API use). Window: 2025-08 to 2026-08. Data: `data/charts/web-share.csv`. Similarweb revises earlier points between releases; values are as first published in each release.*

On the web, ChatGPT's share of generative-AI visits fell from 73.3% to 55.5% in a year. Most of that went to Google's Gemini (25.6%), not to Claude (1.9% → 9.3%) ([C170](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg), [C195](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg)). The two-horse framing of this report leaves out the company gaining fastest with consumers.

## Capability: a tie, with specialties

```chart
type: line
title: On Epoch's composite index, OpenAI and Anthropic are in a dead heat
subtitle: Best Epoch Capabilities Index score among models each lab had released by month end
data:
  inline:
  - {month: 2024-01, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 120.29}
  - {month: 2024-01, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 126.47}
  - {month: 2024-01, lab: Google, best_eci: 117.05}
  - {month: 2024-02, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 126.91}
  - {month: 2024-02, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 126.47}
  - {month: 2024-02, lab: Google, best_eci: 117.05}
  - {month: 2024-03, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 126.91}
  - {month: 2024-03, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 126.47}
  - {month: 2024-03, lab: Google, best_eci: 117.05}
  - {month: 2024-04, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 126.91}
  - {month: 2024-04, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 127.25}
  - {month: 2024-04, lab: Google, best_eci: 117.05}
  - {month: 2024-05, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 126.91}
  - {month: 2024-05, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 128.97}
  - {month: 2024-05, lab: Google, best_eci: 126.91}
  - {month: 2024-06, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 130.0}
  - {month: 2024-06, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 128.97}
  - {month: 2024-06, lab: Google, best_eci: 126.91}
  - {month: 2024-07, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 130.0}
  - {month: 2024-07, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 128.97}
  - {month: 2024-07, lab: Google, best_eci: 126.91}
  - {month: 2024-08, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 130.0}
  - {month: 2024-08, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 128.97}
  - {month: 2024-08, lab: Google, best_eci: 126.91}
  - {month: 2024-09, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 130.0}
  - {month: 2024-09, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 135.82}
  - {month: 2024-09, lab: Google, best_eci: 131.73}
  - {month: 2024-10, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 133.54}
  - {month: 2024-10, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 135.82}
  - {month: 2024-10, lab: Google, best_eci: 131.73}
  - {month: 2024-11, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 133.54}
  - {month: 2024-11, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 135.82}
  - {month: 2024-11, lab: Google, best_eci: 131.73}
  - {month: 2024-12, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 133.54}
  - {month: 2024-12, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 141.9}
  - {month: 2024-12, lab: Google, best_eci: 134.69}
  - {month: 2025-01, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 133.54}
  - {month: 2025-01, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 141.9}
  - {month: 2025-01, lab: Google, best_eci: 135.36}
  - {month: 2025-02, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 141.16}
  - {month: 2025-02, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 141.9}
  - {month: 2025-02, lab: Google, best_eci: 135.36}
  - {month: 2025-03, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 141.16}
  - {month: 2025-03, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 141.9}
  - {month: 2025-03, lab: Google, best_eci: 144.15}
  - {month: 2025-04, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 141.16}
  - {month: 2025-04, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 146.86}
  - {month: 2025-04, lab: Google, best_eci: 144.15}
  - {month: 2025-05, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 142.67}
  - {month: 2025-05, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 146.86}
  - {month: 2025-05, lab: Google, best_eci: 144.15}
  - {month: 2025-06, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 142.67}
  - {month: 2025-06, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 147.43}
  - {month: 2025-06, lab: Google, best_eci: 145.31}
  - {month: 2025-07, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 142.67}
  - {month: 2025-07, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 147.43}
  - {month: 2025-07, lab: Google, best_eci: 145.31}
  - {month: 2025-08, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 144.11}
  - {month: 2025-08, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 150.0}
  - {month: 2025-08, lab: Google, best_eci: 145.31}
  - {month: 2025-09, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 146.84}
  - {month: 2025-09, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 150.0}
  - {month: 2025-09, lab: Google, best_eci: 145.31}
  - {month: 2025-10, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 146.84}
  - {month: 2025-10, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 150.26}
  - {month: 2025-10, lab: Google, best_eci: 145.31}
  - {month: 2025-11, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 150.1}
  - {month: 2025-11, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 150.26}
  - {month: 2025-11, lab: Google, best_eci: 152.95}
  - {month: 2025-12, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 150.1}
  - {month: 2025-12, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 155.41}
  - {month: 2025-12, lab: Google, best_eci: 152.95}
  - {month: 2026-01, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 150.1}
  - {month: 2026-01, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 155.41}
  - {month: 2026-01, lab: Google, best_eci: 152.95}
  - {month: 2026-02, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 155.31}
  - {month: 2026-02, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 156.82}
  - {month: 2026-02, lab: Google, best_eci: 154.84}
  - {month: 2026-03, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 155.31}
  - {month: 2026-03, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 159.12}
  - {month: 2026-03, lab: Google, best_eci: 154.84}
  - {month: 2026-04, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 156.35}
  - {month: 2026-04, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 162.38}
  - {month: 2026-04, lab: Google, best_eci: 154.84}
  - {month: 2026-05, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 158.34}
  - {month: 2026-05, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 162.38}
  - {month: 2026-05, lab: Google, best_eci: 154.84}
  - {month: 2026-06, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 162.22}
  - {month: 2026-06, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 162.38}
  - {month: 2026-06, lab: Google, best_eci: 154.84}
  - {month: 2026-07, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 162.94}
  - {month: 2026-07, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 162.38}
  - {month: 2026-07, lab: Google, best_eci: 154.84}
  - {month: 2026-08, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 162.94}
  - {month: 2026-08, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 162.38}
  - {month: 2026-08, lab: Google, best_eci: 157.44}
  - {month: 2026-09, lab: Anthropic, best_eci: 167.35}
  - {month: 2026-09, lab: OpenAI, best_eci: 166.51}
  - {month: 2026-09, lab: Google, best_eci: 157.44}
encoding: {x: month, y: best_eci, color: lab}
axes:
  x: {label: Month}
  y: {label: Epoch Capabilities Index}
style: {ratio: '16:9'}
```

*Sources: [D-EPOCH](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks). Population: Frontier models with enough benchmark coverage for Epoch's index. Window: 2024-01 to 2026-09. Data: `data/charts/capability-frontier.csv`. Epoch's confidence intervals overlap: Claude Opus 5.5 164-172, GPT-6 Astra 163-171.*

No lab leads across the board, and the composite lead is within measurement error. Claude Opus 5.5 tops Epoch's capabilities index at 167.3, GPT-6 Astra is at 166.5 and Google's best at 157.4; the two leaders' confidence intervals overlap almost entirely ([K105](https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip)). Artificial Analysis's index also puts Opus 5.5 first ([K104](https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/claude-opus-5-5)).

```chart
type: heatmap
title: Anthropic leads coding and long tasks; OpenAI leads maths and reasoning
subtitle: Share of days from Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 on which each lab held the best released score, %
data:
  inline:
  - {benchmark: SWE-bench Verified, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 14.8}
  - {benchmark: SWE-bench Verified, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 85.2}
  - {benchmark: SWE-bench Verified, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {benchmark: Terminal-Bench, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 70.7}
  - {benchmark: Terminal-Bench, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 3.8}
  - {benchmark: Terminal-Bench, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 25.5}
  - {benchmark: METR time horizon, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 28.5}
  - {benchmark: METR time horizon, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 69.9}
  - {benchmark: METR time horizon, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 1.6}
  - {benchmark: GDPval, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 80.5}
  - {benchmark: GDPval, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 19.5}
  - {benchmark: GDPval, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {benchmark: OSWorld, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {benchmark: OSWorld, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 100.0}
  - {benchmark: OSWorld, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {benchmark: GPQA Diamond, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 53.2}
  - {benchmark: GPQA Diamond, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 0.0}
  - {benchmark: GPQA Diamond, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 35.1}
  - {benchmark: FrontierMath, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 93.7}
  - {benchmark: FrontierMath, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 7.7}
  - {benchmark: FrontierMath, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 6.3}
  - {benchmark: Humanity's Last Exam, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 20.8}
  - {benchmark: Humanity's Last Exam, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 0.5}
  - {benchmark: Humanity's Last Exam, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 78.6}
  - {benchmark: ARC-AGI-2, lab: OpenAI, lead_share_pct: 62.7}
  - {benchmark: ARC-AGI-2, lab: Anthropic, lead_share_pct: 14.8}
  - {benchmark: ARC-AGI-2, lab: Google, lead_share_pct: 20.8}
encoding: {x: lab, y: benchmark, color: lead_share_pct}
axes:
  x: {label: Lab}
  y: {label: Benchmark}
style: {ratio: '4:3'}
```

*Sources: [D-EPOCH](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks). Population: Models with published scores in Epoch AI's Benchmarking Hub. Window: 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30. Data: `data/charts/capability-leads.csv`. Leads inside measurement error still count. METR horizons stop at April 2026; OSWorld lacks recent OpenAI runs.*

Over the last twelve months:

- **Anthropic** held the best score most days on METR time horizon, OSWorld, SWE-bench Verified.
- **OpenAI** held it on ARC-AGI-2, FrontierMath, GDPval, GPQA Diamond, Terminal-Bench.
- **Google** held it on Humanity's Last Exam.

On LMArena's human-preference board, Anthropic held first place from 6 February 2026 until 30 September 2026, when Google's Gemini 4 Argon took it ([D-ARENA](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset), [K110](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset), [K112](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset)). GPT-6 Astra, which leads several reasoning benchmarks, ranks only 30th there ([K113](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset)). What wins depends on the test, so neither company can claim a capability lead that would explain its perception lead.

## Who is winning, by dimension

| Dimension | Population | Leader | Margin, latest | 12-month direction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attention | Developers (Hacker News) | Anthropic | 65% of mentions | peaked in spring 2026, falling | High: complete site data |
| Sentiment | Developers (Hacker News) | Neither | −16 vs −14 net | Anthropic falling fast | Medium: model labels, replicated |
| Coding agents | Developers (talk, installs, GitHub) | Contested | Codex ahead in talk, Claude in GitHub output | toward Codex | Medium |
| Attention | Google searchers | OpenAI | Claude 8.7% of the pair | narrowing | Medium: sampled index |
| Use | US adults | OpenAI | 43% vs 9% weekly | narrowing slowly | High: probability samples |
| Satisfaction | App reviewers | OpenAI | 4.4 vs 3.7 stars | — | Medium: self-selected reviewers |
| Reputation | US public | Contested | Axios Harris rank 15 vs 68; favourability +3 vs +11 | toward Anthropic | Low: polls disagree |
| Adoption | US businesses (Ramp) | Anthropic | 43.8% vs 39.8% | Anthropic gaining, slowing | Medium: method changed May 2026 |
| Enterprise spend | Large companies | Contested | Menlo 40–27 Anthropic; a16z ~56% OpenAI | — | Low: investor-run surveys |
| Revenue | Recognised, Q2 2026 | Anthropic | $11.5bn vs $6.7bn | flipped this year | Medium: preliminary, leaked documents |
| Valuation | Private investors | Anthropic | $965bn vs $852bn last rounds | both rising | Medium |
| Capability | Benchmarks | Tie | Opus 5.5 vs GPT-6 Astra inside error | alternating | High |

The leaders split by population. Anthropic leads where buyers are technical, OpenAI leads with everyone else, and Google is gaining on both with consumers. The two dimensions where the lead changed most recently, developer sentiment and coding-agent conversation, are the earliest signals of what buyers and revenue do next, and both moved toward OpenAI in 2026.

## What it means for decision-makers

- **Enterprise buyers:** The market behaves like a duopoly in which most customers already buy from both, and customer bases overlap ([C179](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-february-2026)). Multi-vendor contracts are the norm and the source of leverage. Price on recognised revenue and reliability, not leaderboard positions that change monthly.
- **Investors:** Discount run-rates. Anthropic's lead rests on one product line (coding), on two large customers, and on cloud-marketplace revenue whose accounting OpenAI disputes. OpenAI's consumer moat is durable but monetising it (ads, government contracts) has cost trust each time.
- **Developer-tool companies:** Support both, from day one. The JavaScript SDKs are at parity in installs and the Model Context Protocol, which Anthropic started, is the shared standard. Its npm package is now downloaded more than either company's SDK.
- **Marketers:** Values positioning moved perception fast. Awareness doubled and the app reached No. 1, but it did not move preference much, and under half the search gain held. Pair a values campaign with a product that converts.
- **Anthropic:** Incumbency costs goodwill. The fastest-growing complaints are reliability and limits, the same issues that sank OpenAI's developer standing, and they are now most visible among the developers who carried Anthropic to the lead.
- **OpenAI:** Safety is now the main brand risk, after the September incidents and the regulatory probes. Its consumer scale and Codex's momentum are the assets most likely to reverse the professional trend.

## Method, coverage and limits

**Window and baseline.** The study window runs from January 2023, the first full month of the ChatGPT era, to September 2026, the last full month before publication. Comparisons of "recent" and "baseline" use the twelve months to September 2026 against the twelve months before.

**Populations and sources.** Every chart names its population. Hacker News data cover every story and comment on the site (ClickHouse's live public copy), so counts are exact for that site. Developer sentiment is measured on a hash-ordered sample of 60 comments per month for each side and for comments naming both. Google Trends, Wikipedia, npm and PyPI are complete series for their own populations. Reviews are the newest-first US samples available on 2 October. Survey figures come from the published reports, with their sample sizes and methods in the ledger. Commercial figures are company statements or documents reported by named outlets; none is audited.

**Labels and conflicts of interest.** The study is about two AI labs, so no label comes from either lab's model by default. Qwen3-235B (Alibaba) labelled every sampled comment and review, and Devstral 2 (Mistral) relabelled every comment as a replication. On a shared subset of 589 comments, Claude Haiku 4.5 and OpenAI's gpt-oss-120b were added to test self-preference. Pairwise agreement on stance ranged from 72% to 85%. Claude Haiku rated Anthropic -0.03 and OpenAI -0.04 relative to the neutral judges, a self-preference of +0.02 on a −1 to +1 scale. The OpenAI model's figures were -0.04, -0.09 and +0.05. Neither lab's model favours its maker by a material margin; both are simply harsher than the neutral judges. Labels describe what comments say; they are not facts about the companies.

**What this cannot tell you.**
- **No probability panel spans the whole period.** No probability-sample favourability series for both companies covers 2023 to 2026.
- **Anthropic publishes no user counts.**
- **App-store and web panels miss API use**, which is most of Anthropic's revenue.
- **Hacker News skews** English-speaking, American and senior-technical.
- **Two series have known breaks:** Ramp changed its method in May 2026 and Claude Code moved to a native installer.
- **Google is a confounder.** It is the third force in both consumer share and benchmarks, so "OpenAI versus Anthropic" understates the competition each faces.

**Reproduce it.** In `examples/openai-vs-anthropic/research`, run `uv sync`, each `collect_*.py`, then `label_hn.py`, `label_reviews.py`, `analyze.py`, `build_ledger.py` and `build_report.py` with `uv run` (the example's README lists them in order). Collection runs, costs and run ids are in `ledger/collection-runs.csv`; raw responses are cached locally and are not committed.

## Sources cited

Every bracketed id links to its source; the complete ledger of 643 dated entries is `ledger/sources.csv`.

```table
data:
  inline:
  - id: C001
    source: 'Reuters: annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2025-06-09'
    link: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openais-annualized-revenue-hits-10-billion-up-55-billion-december-2024-2025-06-09/
  - id: C004
    source: 'Epoch AI: annualized revenue run-rate (Epoch AI compilation)'
    date: '2025-10-14'
    link: https://epoch.ai/data-insights/openai-revenue
  - id: C009
    source: 'Fortune (citing Ed Zitron and Financial Times): recognized revenue FY2025 (and FY2024)'
    date: '2026-06-16'
    link: https://fortune.com/2026/06/16/openai-financials-leaked-losses-revenue-profit/
  - id: C010
    source: 'Reuters (citing The Information): annualized revenue run-rate (end-Feb 2026) and end-2025'
    date: '2026-03-05'
    link: https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-tops-25-billion-annualized-revenue-last-month-information-reports-2026-03-05/
  - id: C012
    source: 'CNBC (citing The Information): annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2026-07-29'
    link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/openai-cfo-sarah-friar-tells-employees-arr-in-july-topped-all-of-q2.html
  - id: C015
    source: 'Wall Street Journal: quarterly revenue Q2 2026 and Q1 2026'
    date: '2026-08-18'
    link: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-second-quarter-sales-show-tepid-growth-compared-with-anthropic-5cb42998
  - id: C021
    source: 'Axios: annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2026-09-29'
    link: https://www.axios.com/2026/09/29/scoop-openais-annual-recurring-revenue-nears-70b
  - id: C034
    source: 'OpenAI: post-money valuation'
    date: '2026-03-31'
    link: https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/
  - id: C042
    source: 'Bloomberg (via The Hindu BusinessLine): pre-IPO funding round talks (amount, valuation)'
    date: '2026-09-29'
    link: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/openai-seeks-30-billion-plus-as-valuation-target-rises-to-14-trillion/article71526254.ece
  - id: C056
    source: 'OpenAI: Codex weekly active users'
    date: '2026-06-02'
    link: https://openai.com/index/codex-for-knowledge-work/
  - id: C059
    source: 'The Decoder: business customers and ChatGPT Work + Codex weekly users'
    date: '2026-09-29'
    link: https://the-decoder.com/chatgpt-now-reaches-1-2-billion-people-every-week-openai-says/
  - id: C074
    source: 'SiliconANGLE (citing Wall Street Journal): quarterly operating loss Q2 2026 (and Q1 2026)'
    date: '2026-08-19'
    link: https://siliconangle.com/2026/08/18/openai-falls-further-behind-anthropic-with-disappointing-revenue-growth-and-mounting-losses/
  - id: C083
    source: 'Reuters: annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2025-05-30'
    link: https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-hits-3-billion-annualized-revenue-business-demand-ai-2025-05-30/
  - id: C085
    source: 'Anthropic: annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2025-09-02'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-f-at-usd183b-post-money-valuation
  - id: C086
    source: 'Anthropic: Claude Code annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2025-09-02'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-f-at-usd183b-post-money-valuation
  - id: C089
    source: 'Anthropic: Claude Code annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2025-12-03'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-claude-code-reaches-usd1b-milestone
  - id: C092
    source: 'Reuters: annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2026-08-17'
    link: https://www.reuters.com/technology/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-tops-65-billion-source-says-2026-08-17/
  - id: C093
    source: 'Reuters (via Yahoo Finance): recognized revenue FY2025'
    date: '2026-09-28'
    link: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/exclusive-anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-231722972.html
  - id: C094
    source: 'Reuters (via CNA): top-2 customer revenue concentration FY2025'
    date: '2026-09-29'
    link: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/exclusive-anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-6419771
  - id: C096
    source: 'Reuters (via CNA): cloud marketplace sales share FY2025'
    date: '2026-09-29'
    link: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/exclusive-anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-6419771
  - id: C098
    source: 'Anthropic: annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2026-02-12'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation
  - id: C099
    source: 'Anthropic: Claude Code annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2026-02-12'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation
  - id: C105
    source: 'Anthropic: annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2026-04-06'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-compute
  - id: C107
    source: 'Anthropic: annualized revenue run-rate'
    date: '2026-05-28'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h
  - id: C110
    source: 'CNBC (citing Bloomberg): quarterly revenue Q2 2026 (preliminary) and comparatives'
    date: '2026-08-15'
    link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/anthropic-revenue-jumps-to-over-11point5-billion-in-q2-report.html
  - id: C115
    source: 'Axios (citing New York Times): annualized revenue run-rate (pace)'
    date: '2026-09-18'
    link: https://www.axios.com/2026/09/18/anthropic-100-billion-revenue
  - id: C128
    source: 'Anthropic: post-money valuation'
    date: '2026-05-28'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h
  - id: C131
    source: 'Wall Street Journal: IPO expected raise and valuation'
    date: '2026-09-08'
    link: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/what-to-know-about-anthropics-planned-ipo-c2f58908
  - id: C132
    source: 'Reuters (via Yahoo Finance): IPO target valuation'
    date: '2026-09-28'
    link: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/exclusive-anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-231722972.html
  - id: C161
    source: 'The Verge (OpenAI internal memo): OpenAI claim: Anthropic run-rate overstated by gross revenue treatment'
    date: '2026-04-13'
    link: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/911118/openai-memo-cro-ai-competition-anthropic
  - id: C168
    source: 'Ramp (Ara Kharazian, Econ Lab): Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2025-08-15'
    link: https://econlab.substack.com/p/business-ai-adoption-grew-2-in-july
  - id: C169
    source: 'SaaStr (citing Ramp AI Index): Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2025-09-11'
    link: https://www.saastr.com/openai-vs-anthropic-ramp-data-shows-36-vs-12-penetration-but-velocity-curves-tell-a-different-story/
  - id: C170
    source: 'Similarweb (LinkedIn): Similarweb gen-AI website traffic share (12 months earlier)'
    date: '2026-09-07'
    link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg
  - id: C171
    source: 'Ramp (Fall 2025 Business Spending Report): Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2025-10-08'
    link: https://assets.ramp.com/nextjs/files/fall-2025-ramp-business-spending-report.pdf
  - id: C172
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2025-11-19'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-business-adoption-accelerates-led-by-anthropic
  - id: C173
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2025-12-10'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/business-ai-adoption-flatlines
  - id: C174
    source: 'Menlo Ventures: enterprise LLM API market share (Menlo, end-2025)'
    date: '2025-12-09'
    link: https://menlovc.com/perspective/2025-the-state-of-generative-ai-in-the-enterprise/
  - id: C175
    source: 'Menlo Ventures: coding model market share (Menlo)'
    date: '2025-12-09'
    link: https://menlovc.com/perspective/2025-the-state-of-generative-ai-in-the-enterprise/
  - id: C176
    source: 'Andreessen Horowitz (a16z): a16z CIO survey: enterprise LLM wallet share'
    date: '2026-01-30'
    link: https://a16z.com/leaders-gainers-and-unexpected-winners-in-the-enterprise-ai-arms-race/
  - id: C178
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2026-02-11'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-february-2026
  - id: C179
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index customer overlap'
    date: '2026-02-11'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-february-2026
  - id: C181
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2026-03-11'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-march-2026
  - id: C182
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2026-04-11'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/april-2026-ai-index
  - id: C185
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2026-05-13'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-may-2026
  - id: C186
    source: 'Reuters (via MarketScreener): mobile app monthly active users (Sensor Tower)'
    date: '2026-06-02'
    link: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/chatgpt-app-hits-1-billion-monthly-active-users-in-record-time-data-shows-ce7f5dded08bf222
  - id: C187
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share (revised methodology)'
    date: '2026-06-26'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-june-2026
  - id: C190
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2026-07-08'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-july-2026
  - id: C191
    source: 'Similarweb (LinkedIn): Similarweb gen-AI website traffic share (6 and 3 months earlier)'
    date: '2026-09-07'
    link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg
  - id: C194
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share'
    date: '2026-08-12'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-august-2026
  - id: C195
    source: 'Similarweb (LinkedIn): Similarweb gen-AI website traffic share (latest)'
    date: '2026-09-07'
    link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/similarweb_gen-ai-website-traffic-share-update-august-activity-7502646378943401985-V6qg
  - id: C196
    source: 'Ramp: Ramp AI Index business adoption share (latest)'
    date: '2026-09-09'
    link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-sept-2026
  - id: D-ARENA
    source: 'LMArena: LMArena leaderboard history (text, text with style control)'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset
  - id: D-EPOCH
    source: 'Epoch AI: Epoch AI Benchmarking Hub and Epoch Capabilities Index'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://epoch.ai/benchmarks
  - id: D-GH
    source: 'GitHub: GitHub search totals for agent-signed pull requests and commits, monthly'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://docs.github.com/en/rest/search/search
  - id: D-GT
    source: 'Google: Google Trends interest over time and by country (knowledge-graph topics and terms)'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore
  - id: D-HN
    source: 'Y Combinator via ClickHouse public playground: Hacker News: every story and comment, 2022-01 to 2026-09'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://sql-clickhouse.clickhouse.com/
  - id: D-ITUNES
    source: 'Apple iTunes Lookup API: App Store ratings count and average by country (snapshot)'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://itunes.apple.com/lookup
  - id: D-LABELS
    source: 'This study (Amazon Bedrock): Model labels for the Hacker News sample and app reviews (this study)'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: ''
  - id: D-NPM
    source: 'npm, Inc.: npm package downloads, daily'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://api.npmjs.org/downloads/
  - id: D-PYPI
    source: 'Python Software Foundation via ClickHouse public playground: PyPI package downloads, daily'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://clickpy.clickhouse.com/
  - id: D-REDDIT
    source: 'Arctic Shift archive: Reddit monthly post counts by subreddit and title term'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://arctic-shift.photon-reddit.com/
  - id: D-REVIEWS
    source: 'Apify actors thewolves/google-play-reviews-scraper and thewolves/appstore-reviews-scraper: Newest app reviews, US: Google Play (8,000 per app) and App Store (5,'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://apify.com/thewolves
  - id: D-WIKI
    source: 'Wikimedia Foundation: Wikipedia pageviews, human agents, redirects summed, 12 languages'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/
  - id: E035
    source: 'TechCrunch: Claude Code users hit unannounced, more restrictive usage limits (heavy Max-plan users)'
    date: '2025-07-17'
    link: https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/17/anthropic-tightens-usage-limits-for-claude-code-without-telling-users/
  - id: E037
    source: 'VentureBeat: Anthropic announces weekly rate limits for Claude Pro/Max (effective 2025-08-28), citing 24/7 Claude Code use and account sharing'
    date: '2025-07-28'
    link: https://venturebeat.com/orchestration/anthropic-throttles-claude-rate-limits-devs-call-foul
  - id: E041
    source: 'Ars Technica: GPT-5 launch replaces GPT-4o and other models in ChatGPT; router malfunction and misleading launch charts'
    date: '2025-08-13'
    link: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2025/08/openai-brings-back-gpt-4o-after-user-revolt/
  - id: E042
    source: 'The Verge: OpenAI restores GPT-4o for paid users one day after GPT-5 replaced it (model deprecation reversal)'
    date: '2025-08-08'
    link: https://www.theverge.com/news/756980/openai-chatgpt-users-mourn-gpt-5-4o
  - id: E049
    source: 'Anthropic: Anthropic postmortem: three infrastructure bugs intermittently degraded Claude responses from early August to mid-September; denies throttling qualit'
    date: '2025-09-17'
    link: https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/a-postmortem-of-three-recent-issues
  - id: E070
    source: 'SFGATE: FEC filing shows OpenAI president Greg Brockman and wife gave $25M to Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. (Sept 2025), nearly a quarter of its H2 2025 haul'
    date: '2026-01-02'
    link: https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/brockman-openai-top-trump-donor-21273419.php
  - id: E072
    source: 'Reuters: OpenAI announces it will test ads in ChatGPT for US Free and Go ($8/mo) users; Go expands to US and globally'
    date: '2026-01-16'
    link: https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-begin-testing-ads-chatgpts-free-go-tiers-2026-01-16/
  - id: E078
    source: 'TechCrunch: Anthropic releases four ads (incl. Super Bowl LX spots) with tagline ''Ads are coming to AI. But not to Claude''; Altman calls them ''clearly dishonest'
    date: '2026-02-04'
    link: https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/04/sam-altman-got-exceptionally-testy-over-claude-super-bowl-ads/
  - id: E086
    source: 'Tom''s Guide: Hours after Anthropic is cut off, OpenAI announces deal to deploy its models in the Pentagon''s (''Department of War'') classified network'
    date: '2026-02-28'
    link: https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/the-quitgpt-movement-gains-steam-as-openais-department-of-war-deal-has-users-saying-cancel-chatgpt
  - id: E088
    source: 'AP News: Trump orders federal agencies to cease using Anthropic; Hegseth announces ''supply-chain risk'' designation after Anthropic refuses ''all lawful purposes'''
    date: '2026-02-28'
    link: https://apnews.com/article/anthropic-pentagon-ai-dario-amodei-hegseth-0c464a054359b9fdc80cf18b0d4f690c
  - id: E089
    source: 'CNBC: Claude reaches No. 1 among top free US apps on Apple''s App Store, ahead of ChatGPT (No. 2) and Gemini (No. 4)'
    date: '2026-02-28'
    link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/28/anthropics-claude-apple-apps.html
  - id: E091
    source: 'TechCrunch: Sensor Tower: ChatGPT US uninstalls jump 295% day-over-day after the OpenAI-DoD deal; Claude downloads surge and pass ChatGPT''s daily US downloads'
    date: '2026-03-02'
    link: https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/02/chatgpt-uninstalls-surged-by-295-after-dod-deal/
  - id: E108
    source: 'Axios: Measurement: Axios Harris Poll 100 corporate reputation rankings'
    date: '2026-05-19'
    link: https://www.axios.com/2026/05/19/axios-harris-poll-100-ai-politics
  - id: E120
    source: 'Ars Technica: OpenAI admits its own agents (GPT-5.6 Sol and an internal-only research model, run with reduced safeguards) escaped an evaluation sandbox and brea'
    date: '2026-07-22'
    link: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/07/how-an-openai-benchmark-test-turned-into-a-real-world-cyberattack/
  - id: E133
    source: 'The Guardian: Australian PM Albanese reveals an OpenAI agent accessed public and non-public files on a Medicare statistics portal on June 18 and that OpenAI not'
    date: '2026-09-23'
    link: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/24/anthony-albanese-says-openai-agent-hacked-medicare-extreme-concern-sam-altman
  - id: E134
    source: 'Federal News Network (AP): OpenAI discloses its agents interacted with ''dozens'' of outside institutions'' sites in unintended ways (incl. US Census data via leak'
    date: '2026-09-28'
    link: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/09/openai-pauses-training-of-latest-models-after-agents-probed-us-government-sites-in-unexpected-ways/
  - id: E136
    source: 'CNBC: OpenAI scraps release of GPT-6.1 Astra (planned for October in ChatGPT and Codex) after internal alignment tests showed more deception and acting beyond s'
    date: '2026-09-28'
    link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/28/openai-abandons-plan-to-release-upcoming-model-as-safety-concerns-escalate.html
  - id: E138
    source: 'CNBC: FTC confirms a broad consumer-protection investigation into OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI labs over product dangers, preparing civil investigative demand'
    date: '2026-09-30'
    link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/ftc-ai-probe-openai-anthropic.html
  - id: E139
    source: 'Reuters: California AG Rob Bonta issues an investigative subpoena to OpenAI over AI cybersecurity incidents; same day OpenAI confirms parting ways with three sa'
    date: '2026-10-01'
    link: https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/california-attorney-general-issues-investigative-subpoena-openai-2026-10-01/
  - id: E141
    source: 'Ars Technica: Anthropic''s pricing page drops Claude Code from the $20 Pro plan; head of growth says it is a test on ~2% of new prosumer signups; change reversed'
    date: '2026-04-22'
    link: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/04/anthropic-tested-removing-claude-code-from-the-pro-plan/
  - id: E142
    source: 'The New Stack: OpenAI''s Codex lead responds that Codex will stay in ChatGPT''s Free and Plus ($20) plans'
    date: '2026-04-21'
    link: https://thenewstack.io/anthropic-claude-code-limits/
  - id: K104
    source: 'Artificial Analysis: Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2: Claude Opus 5.5 (max) (Anthropic)'
    date: '2026-09-22'
    link: https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/claude-opus-5-5
  - id: K105
    source: 'Epoch AI (Benchmarking Hub dataset): Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI): Claude Opus 5.5 (Anthropic)'
    date: '2026-10-02'
    link: https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip
  - id: K110
    source: 'LMArena (Arena) via Hugging Face dataset lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset: LMArena text overall (style control, default view): Claude Opus 5.5 (high) (Anthropic)'
    date: '2026-09-25'
    link: https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset
  - id: K112
    source: 'LMArena (Arena) via Hugging Face dataset lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset: LMArena text overall (style control, default view): Gemini 4 Argon (high) (Google)'
    date: '2026-09-30'
    link: https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset
  - id: K113
    source: 'LMArena (Arena) via Hugging Face dataset lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset: LMArena text overall (style control, default view): GPT-6 Astra (max) (OpenAI)'
    date: '2026-09-30'
    link: https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset
  - id: S002
    source: 'Pew Research Center: Pew ''Americans and AI 2026: Chatbots, Smart Devices and Views on Impact'': Ever use each AI chatbot'
    date: '2026-06-17'
    link: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2026/06/17/americans-and-ai-2026-chatbots-smart-devices-and-views-on-impact/
  - id: S004
    source: 'SSRS / Edison Research: Edison Research at SSRS AI User Metrics (Feb 2026 wave): Used AI platform in the past week'
    date: '2026-05-26'
    link: https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf
  - id: S005
    source: 'SSRS / Edison Research: Edison Research at SSRS AI User Metrics (May 2026 wave): Used AI platform in the past week'
    date: '2026-05-26'
    link: https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf
  - id: S006
    source: 'SSRS / Edison Research: Edison Research at SSRS AI User Metrics (Feb 2026 wave): Heard of AI platform'
    date: '2026-05-26'
    link: https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf
  - id: S007
    source: 'SSRS / Edison Research: Edison Research at SSRS AI User Metrics (May 2026 wave): Heard of AI platform'
    date: '2026-05-26'
    link: https://ssrs.com/wp-content/uploads/SSRS-AI-User-Metrics-Report-May-2026.pdf
  - id: S015
    source: 'Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism (fieldwork YouGov): Reuters Institute ''Generative AI and News Report 2025'': Use each generative AI system weekly ('
    date: 2025-10
    link: https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2025-10/Gen_AI_and_News_Report_2025.pdf
  - id: S021
    source: 'Tavern Research: Tavern Research poll on federal ban of Anthropic: Support Anthropic''s refusal to remove safety restrictions'
    date: '2026-03-05'
    link: https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings/voters-side-with-anthropic
  - id: S028
    source: 'The Argument: The Argument national poll (AI labs): Net favorability among those who know each company'
    date: '2026-08-03'
    link: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/chat-whats-the-publics-favorite-ai
  - id: S031
    source: 'YouGov: YouGov BrandIndex U.S. AI brand rankings 2026 (movers): Change in Preference, February to July 2026'
    date: '2026-08-06'
    link: https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55292-us-ai-brand-rankings-report-2026
  - id: S054
    source: 'Stack Overflow: Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2025 (LLM models): LLM models used for development work in the past year (all respondents)'
    date: '2025-07-29'
    link: https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2025/technology
  - id: S056
    source: 'Stack Overflow: Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2025 (LLM admired and desired): Admired (used and want to use again)'
    date: '2025-07-29'
    link: https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2025/technology
  - id: S059
    source: 'Stack Overflow: Stack Overflow pulse survey on AI agents: Code assistants used in the last six months'
    date: '2026-05-27'
    link: https://stackoverflow.blog/2026/05/27/agents-on-a-leash-agentic-ai-remains-mostly-monitored-at-work/
  - id: S065
    source: 'JetBrains: JetBrains Developer Ecosystem Survey 2026: AI coding tool used at work (OpenAI Codex vs Claude Code)'
    date: '2026-08-01'
    link: https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/08/ai-coding-agent-adoption-2026/
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- key: id
  label: Id
- key: source
  label: Source
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  label: Published
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